Oceans & climate · The ENSO record
El Niño, La Niña & the Pacific
The Pacific moves between warmer, cooler and neutral states. Here is what has been observed, what NOAA is forecasting, and how the two differ.
Captured for the journal
30 September 2026
Captured 00:07 UTC. Each product retains its own observation or issue date. This is a saved daily record, not a live warning service.
Official NOAA advisory · 2026-09-10
El Niño Advisory
El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27.
NOAA synopsis. Next scheduled discussion: 8 October 2026. Read the issuing authority ↗
Latest captured RONI · observed
+1.36°C
JJA 2026 · overlapping three-month mean
RONI measures Niño 3.4 relative to the wider tropical ocean, with an adjustment for variability. It is not today’s temperature and is not interchangeable with traditional ONI.
Across the equatorial Pacific
Tap the map to inspect the nearest sampled ocean point.
Inspect a coordinate without the map
The observed cycle
RONI · last 120 captured seasons · °C
Dashed lines mark ±0.5°C. Sustained ocean anomalies and atmospheric evidence matter; crossing a line does not by itself establish an official event. Recent RONI estimates may be revised. Baseline: 1991–2020.
Recent observed values
JAS 2025: -0.59°C
ASO 2025: -0.78°C
SON 2025: -0.93°C
OND 2025: -0.98°C
NDJ 2025: -1.04°C
DJF 2026: -0.91°C
JFM 2026: -0.76°C
FMA 2026: -0.44°C
MAM 2026: -0.04°C
AMJ 2026: +0.49°C
MJJ 2026: +0.97°C
JJA 2026: +1.36°C
What NOAA forecasts
Official phase probabilities · issued September 2026. These overlapping three-month seasons are forecasts, not observations. Percentages are rounded by the source; 100% is not a guarantee of local impacts.
Sources in this capture
Captured · 2026-09-30 00:07 UTC
Captured · 2026-09-30 00:07 UTC
Captured · 2026-09-30 00:07 UTC
Captured · 2026-09-30 00:07 UTC